Publications
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Persistent Slumps: Innovation and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy (2025)
​with Elton Beqiraj, Qingqing Cao, Raoul Minetti, European Economic Review, 172, 104946
Monetary policy is increasingly found to exert long-run effects on the aggregate economy. We investigate the long-term effects of monetary policy through the credit channel. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries and endogenous innovation in which credit frictions constrain firms’ investment and R&D expenses. Following an adverse monetary shock, the tightening in lending conditions for the innovation sector generates sizeable long-term effects, turning the shock into a persistent stagnation. We quantify the contribution of this transmission channel to productivity and output hysteresis. We then characterize the monetary policy trade-offs between short- and long-term targets, showing that the control of inflation can entail a growth slowdown. The results are consistent with Bayesian VAR estimates of the responses of credit and innovation aggregates to monetary shocks.

Presented at: 2° Sailing the Macro Workshop (Ventotene, Sep 22) - Workshop in Empirical & Theoretical Macro (King's College London, May 23) - QCGBF Annual Conference (King's College London, Jul 23) - MMF Annual Conference (University of Portsmouth, Sep 23) - SNDE Symposium (Università di Padova, Mar 24) - ICMAIF (University of Crete, May 24) - SED Annual Meeting (Barcelona School of Economics, Jun 24)
Working Papers
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The Enduring Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy (2025)
Paper | Appendix | SSRN
Does unconventional monetary policy generate a long-term impact on macroeconomic outcomes? This paper investigates the transmission in an economy where credit-financed R&D investment drives endogenous growth. Using a dynamic general equilibrium framework that links financial conditions and growth, I study the long-run aggregate effects of quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance (FG) and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). All expansionary measures operate through the credit channel, improving banks’ balance sheet conditions and fostering economic growth. In calibrated scenarios, FG and NIRP emerge as the most effective tools for sustaining productivity increases. These policies boost TFP and output, mitigating the ZLB constraint. While QE raises TFP persistently, its quantitative impact is smaller, with a more short-lived effect on output.

Ashot Mkrtchyan Award 2025 from the Central Bank of Armenia
Forthcoming: TBA
Presented at: ICMAIF (University of Crete, May 24) - 4° Sailing the Macro Workshop (Ortigia, Sep 24) - NSE Workshop (Università di Napoli Federico II, Sep 24) - ASSET 2024 (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Nov 24) - AMEF 2025 (University of Macedonia, Apr 25) - ArmEA Annual Meeting (Yerevan, Jun 25) - EEA Congress 2025 (Bordeaux School of Economics, 25 - 28 August)
Projects
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Monetary Policy: Growth or Inequality?
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Monetary Policy and the Financing of Automation