Working Papers
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"Persistent Slumps: Innovation & the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy" (2023),
​with Elton Beqiraj, Qingqing Cao & Raoul Minetti - R&R, European Economic Review
Monetary policy is increasingly found to exert long-run effects on the aggregate economy. We investigate the long-term effects of monetary policy through the credit channel. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries and endogenous innovation in which credit frictions constrain firms’ investment and R&D expenses. Following an adverse monetary shock, the tightening in lending conditions for the innovation sector generates sizeable long-term effects, turning the shock into a persistent stagnation. We quantify the contribution of this transmission channel to productivity and output hysteresis. We then characterize the monetary policy trade-offs between short- and long-term targets, showing that the control of inflation can entail a growth slowdown. The results are consistent with Bayesian VAR estimates of the responses of credit and innovation aggregates to monetary shocks.
Presented at: 2° Sailing the Macro Workshop (Ventotene, Sep 22) - Workshop in Empirical & Theoretical Macro (King's College London, May 23) - QCGBF Annual Conference (King's College London, Jul 23) - MMF Annual Conference (University of Portsmouth, Sep 23) - SNDE Symposium (Università di Padova, Mar 24) - ICMAIF (University of Crete, May 24) - SED Annual Meeting (Barcelona School of Economics, Jun 24)
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"The Enduring Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy" (2024)
Paper | Appendix | SSRN
This paper investigates unconventional monetary policy transmission linked to credit-financed endogenous growth. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model where financial conditions and growth are interwoven, I study the aggregate aftermath to quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance (FG) and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). All expansionary interventions operate through the credit channel, influencing banks' conditions and fostering economic growth. In calibrated scenarios, FG and NIRP emerge as optimal options for sustained productivity increases. These policies influence TFP and output, easing the ZLB constraint. While QE boosts TFP persistently, its quantitative impact is relatively lower, with a more short-lived effect on output.
Forthcoming: ASSET 2024 (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 31 October - 2 November 2024)
Presented at: ICMAIF (University of Crete, May 24) - 4° Sailing the Macro Workshop (Ortigia, Sep 24) - NSE Workshop (Università di Napoli Federico II, Sep 24)
Projects
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"Credit Reallocation & Endogenous Growth"